• FORECAST: Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) estimates that the country’s GDP will contract between 4.6% and 8.8% in 2020 depending on the impact of the pandemic on the Mexican economy. In its most recent quarterly report, the bank projects a job loss between 800,0000 and 1.4 million jobs.
• SCENARIOS: Given uncertainty regarding the impact of the global pandemic and the effectiveness of the country’s containment measures, Mexico’s central bank opted to present a series of scenarios (V-shaped, deep-V and deep-U) rather than a single prediction of how the economy could behave.
• UNCERTAINTY: “This uncertainty that we face makes us less precise in terms of a specific or a central GDP scenario. And also in terms of (determining) a rhythm of when the economy’s recovery could take place”, said Alejandro Díaz de León, Mexico’s central bank governor.
• OTHER VIEWS: In its most recent forecast in April, the López Obrador administration foresees a 3.9% fall in GDP as Mexico’s worst scenario for 2020. However, other projections are even more dire including Bank of America predicting a 10% drop and Goldman Sachs estimating an 8.5% decline.
