Xóchitl Gálvez went for a walk by herself in the mountains of central Mexico to give it some thought. It was a very big decision. Many of her friends were begging her to run for president, but her family was divided. Her daughter felt she should go for it, while her son thought she should stick to running for Mexico City’s top job (a post similar to a US governorship that presides over the country’s most important urban area), an election that according to polls she already practically had in the bag. But after convening quietly with herself, Ms. Gálvez decided to throw her hat into the presidential ring. And what a splash it made! Now it seems that this successful businesswoman from Hidalgo with indigenous roots may actually be able to give President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) movement, MORENA, a run for its money.
Since the 2018 presidential election, the main opposition parties (PAN/PRI/PRD, a coalition now known as the Frente Amplio por México) have been unable to construct a viable narrative to contrast with AMLO’s. The political class has largely been dismissed as either corrupt or completely out of touch with mainstream Mexicans (50% of the country still lives below the poverty line), a fact that largely explains the president’s consistent popularity (his approval ratings are above 60%).
While many in the upper classes are disgusted with his government’s ineffectuality and politics of division (reminiscent of former president Trump, with whom he got on well), AMLO hit on a big – if rather obvious – political idea. His diagnosis that Mexico is a classist, racist country in which opportunity has only been offered to an elite (largely white) few has stuck, because it is on the whole true; no amount of intellectualization or Power Point pie charts are going to change the minds of the Mexican majority who have lived for generations within the confines of this limiting reality.
While AMLO’s diagnosis is valid, his medicine has made the patient only sicker. His government has starved the state via massive budget cuts, debilitating institutions, reducing the effectiveness of government, imperilling the well-being of those who have the least and putting Mexico’s sovereignty vis-à-vis organized crime (ie., the monopoly over the state’s use of force) into jeopardy.
Beyond providing small cash transfers for survival -AMLO’s go-to strategy- Mexico needs to invest in institutions capable of providing public services that can help ensure that the disenfranchised majority have access to quality education, health care and safe streets. Ms. Gálvez understands this and has both a sophisticated national and world view, which might be just what the doctor ordered.
Ms. Gálvez is an engineer who grew up in poverty, amidst family violence and decided she was going to get an education and be successful; she has never looked back. She invested the equivalent of US $2,000 of her own money to start a successful tech company and she has provided for her family and then some. She worries about climate change, urban planning and ensuring healthcare for those who are not insured (in the case of Mexico most people get their care from a public system, which is in terrible shape; medicine shortages are an everyday occurrence). Ms. Gálvez is the epitome of the American dream, but she pulled it off in Mexico, a nearly impossible statistical feat.
It is still early days, but Xóchitl Lovers, as they are called, are making the establishment – MORENA and the stodgy old political parties – very nervous. How can they question her understanding of the challenges faced by the average Mexican? They can’t. How can they insult her intelligence? It will be tough, but I’m sure the misogynists will come up with something.
What happens next, you might ask? The nitty-gritty details are for diehard Mexican political junkies only, but here is a quick rundown. Both MORENA and the Frente will choose their candidates sometime in September. In the case of the Frente, Ms. Gálvez faces weak competition, but those who oppose her are strong party insiders, like Enrique de la Madrid (PRI) and Santiago Creel (PAN). If I had to bet, I would place my money on the audacious Ms. Gálvez. After only one week, she is already ahead in the polls amongst her Frente challengers and civil society and feminists alike are going wild with the idea.
What will determine who can eventually win this presidential race, one that only ten days ago most assumed would be swept up anew by MORENA? A relatively new and increasingly strong party, Movimiento Ciudadano (MC), may be the queen maker. In recent years, this party has recuperated various regional leaderships that had become disillusioned with politics as usual, and MC holds two key governorships: Nuevo León (the capital of which is Monterrey) and Jalisco (Guadalajara), the joint population of which represents over 11% of the country’s population. Given that Ms. Gálvez has held office as a PANista but is not considered a dyed-in-the-wool member, she escapes being easily typecast, leaving room for a narrative that fashions her as a fresh face, a valuable asset given the unpopularity of the main opposition parties
The most likely candidate to have her name on the MORENA ticket is Claudia Sheinbaum, the current chief of Mexico City. This means that regardless of who wins the presidential election in June of next year, the country is very likely to have a female president in 2024, something to celebrate in and of itself.
* Amy Glover is president of Agil(e) and Co-Chair of 5050 Women on Boards in Mexico. She is also member of the Board of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI) Twitter: @chilangagringa
